FROM: Gary Meltz, Principal, MELTZ Communications
SUBJ: Election Analysis
DATE: November 9, 2016
Greetings, I hope you are having a good day. Some quick reactions to yesterday’s momentous election.
1. First and foremost, a huge night for Republicans and a terrible night for Democrats all across the United States (including myself and everyone I worked with at the DNC for the last few months). Also, Trump is the big dog in town now and Republicans and Democrats are right to fear him, for the time being at least.
2. My previous analysis was wrong (big time) about Hillary cruising and Democrats making gains in Congress. My only consolation on being wrong is that I was calling for big gains weeks before most everyone else.
3. I am not going to analyze the turnout or the election in this memo. I will let the pollsters do that and figure out what they screwed up, and who voted which way and who didn’t vote at all.
4. If you are a traditional left-leaning advocacy group, business or anything else in Washington, the next few years are going to be rough. There are no traditional pathways open to achieving gains on any legislative or regulatory priorities.
5. If you are an established business interest in Washington with an agenda, the next few years has the ability to be productive. Trump claims to be a deal maker, so it’s time for him to make some deals. Business has a real shot to get some goodies from a Trump administration and a GOP controlled Congress. However, on trade, not so much.
6. For the next few years, the real action is going to be in the Senate. The question for Sen. Chuck Schumer – the next Minority Leader – is will he play the role of Mitch McConnell under Obama, and try and block everything, or will he be undermined by his caucus with many Democratic Senators up for reelection in 2018 who don’t want to be painted as obstructionists by President Trump.
7. By nature, Schumer is not an obstructionist and could make deals. The question is, is who will he be making deals with? McConnell? Trump? Ryan? A new Speaker?
8. As for the House, things should run more smoothly over the next few years. There will be no more power vacuum at the top: it’s Donald Trump and he will get what he wants, for the time being at least.