FROM: Gary Meltz, Principal, MELTZ Communications
SUBJ: Upcoming Election
DATE: October 18, 2016
Greetings. Before tomorrow night’s final debate, I wanted to share my views on where things stand in the upcoming election. I look forward to any feedback you might have. Thank you, Gary
Hillary Clinton: Barring a catastrophe, Hillary is going to win big on November 8th. Since defeating Senator Bernie Sanders in the primary, she has run her campaign focused on these fundamentals:
- She has the traditional Electoral College advantage enjoyed by Democrats, and is now threatening to win traditional red states like Arizona.
- Republicans are increasingly becoming the party of white males, which is not enough to overcome all other demographics, which are supporting Clinton.
- Her opponent is Donald Trump and his inability to run a disciplined campaign is glaring. Plus, his baggage is epic and overwhelming any potential damage to Hillary from the Wikileaks releases.
The Media: The media has kept people believing this election is close, despite the fact that Hillary has always been favored to win and is a very strong candidate (at least if you compare her to her competition which is all that matters).
- Hillary got more votes against Obama in 2008, than Sanders did against Hillary in 2016. But, if you believed the media during this year’s Democratic primary, Hillary was a weak candidate.
- They propped Trump up allowing him to attack his GOP primary opponents relentlessly. Now he has the nomination, they mercilessly savage him.
- Continue to report heavily on national polls, even though they are meaningless compared to polls in the battleground states. This weekend, the WaPo poll found Hillary is only up 4 nationally and it led the news cycle. This poll is an outlier and, again, mostly meaningless.
Donald Trump: Barring a miracle, he is going to lose very badly on November 8th. Maybe he had a chance before the first debate, but his inability to focus on his message of inequality and fighting for American jobs has cost him the election.
- He has no real campaign infrastructure in many of the battleground states and he has lost all demographics besides white males.
- Hence, his strategy is to get out the white male vote in (highly questionable) methods never seen before, and to suppress Hillary’s vote by tearing her down.
- Early voting and Democrat/Republican registration numbers are showing this plan is going to fail.
Republican Party: Post-election, the narrative is going to be they faced a weak candidate in Clinton (which I do not believe is fully accurate), yet they got demolished.
- The schism between the Washington establishment and the rank and file GOP is growing, and there is no obvious end to it anytime soon.
- What does the party stand for going forward? Free trade? Cutting taxes? Building a wall? Fighting ISIS? Replacing Obamacare?
- Remember the 2012 GOP autopsy about appealing to younger and non-white voters? Apparently Trump didn’t read it.
House of Representatives: By all accounts, thanks to their recent redistricting efforts, the GOP should keep the House. But that is far from certain this year.
- Let me just point to this analysis by GOP pollster Robert Blizzard with Public Opinion Strategies. Here is what the WaPo wrote about Blizzard’s work:
- “It is VERY hard for a House candidate — whether incumbent or challenger — to run significantly ahead or behind the top of the ticket in a presidential year.”
- If you are a GOP incumbent, and Trump is polling under 45% in your District, look out. Read the article.
Senate: Assuming Trump drags down the ticket, it seems that the majority of close races should favor Democrats. This means likely Democratic control of the chamber.
- I predict Democratic victories in these closely watched races: Arizona, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This is more than enough for Democrats to take control of the Senate.
- I don’t know anything you don’t, and these are only predictions. I just feel a wave election coming on, which bodes poorly for GOP control of the Senate.
- A potential saving grace for the GOP is recent reporting which found that Democrats are willing to split their ticket and support both Clinton and the GOP candidate for Senate. However, this analysis was done before Trump’s meltdown and Democratic candidates are working hard to tie their opponents to Trump.